Double Live Win! What Are The Odds?

Wow, been pretty lazy with the blogging lately, dunno why but from looking at it seems that this happens in Feb. At least one a month! Should do more really... blogging is pretty therapeutic!

My friend really loves live poker compared to online poker, so he's been dragging me along to play at the Milton Keynes Casino. It is a pretty good place for poker actually, there is a dedicated room for poker at the back. I personally don't really like live that much, when your playing 18 tables at the same time, you kinda become a bit of an action junkie, and then dropping down to just one... with 1/4 speed of dealing too (prob even slower then that) then it become more unappealing.

Since he's gotten a few Tuesdays off, we would play snooker in the day and then head off to play the £20 1xRebuy Tournament which started at 7pm. Interestingly enough, it has a 2 hour late registration, and also a 1k Chip Add on if you register on time. You start with 8000 chips and blinds are 20 mins long and starts at 25/50. So that is quite deep stacked games! However, the traffic is not that high, so both weeks we got only 26 buy ins and had like 3 tables lol. What makes this more bearable is that its very likely that my friend would move to my table and we can banter a bit.

There's nothing more satisfying then knocking out your friend in Poker. That happened last night as he shoved 22 from early position, another guy called with 55 and I shipped the pot with 88. I did my best Tony G impersonation to the shock of the rest of the table on how rude I was at berating my friend!

"ON YOUR BIKE!! OFF U GO!! CALL URSELF A PROFESSIONAL?? YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELF" =D




DIFFERENCES OF LIVE AND ONLINE

There are quite a few notable differences between live and online poker. Apart from the obvious ones like one is sitting in front of a computer, and the other being sitting in a room with other people in a casino durrr. I'm talking about tendencies really... which makes it quite interesting.

1. Chip Counting/Management - From a practical side of things, having the number on the screen is quite useful when trying to work out how many chips everyone has. But in live poker, this can be quite difficult to know. If you ask them their stack size, they are not obliged to tell you, but must let you be able to see it. The dealer is not allowed to count it for you, unless he is all in (rules may vary in different casinos). This can become problematic when there are short stacks around the table usually not making their chip stacks very visible. You don't want to raise to steal the blinds and then suddenly end up having to call off because of the odds. However, you do have a looooot of time on your hands in comparison to online poker, so you should be aware of these things.
2. Limping Doesn't Necessarily Mean Weak Early Tournament - This is one of the biggest things I've noticed. In online poker, the fish will limp, but will almost always be weak. But in live poker, I've seen it so many times that newbies will limp in with "hand that they wanna play" and then if shoved on they will call with their 88+ AJ+ kinda range. So you have to be careful with your shoving over limps. I remember once in Manchester I was playing a tournament and a newbie limped JJ UTG and I shoved 88 (was last 2 tables), he tanked for ages and folded face up. Wow. Yes, this kinda goes against what I just said, but just highlighting the fact that he limped JJ. Just makes me think... what kinda hand do they need before they raise??
3. Pocket Pairs are Totally Overvalued - Fish love pocket pairs and just cant let them go. And I'm talking when we are playing post flop... with like 4 overs on the board. The logic is that when you continuation bet after you've hit, do you get value? What can you opponent have that calls your bets? Well in the case of live poker, from what I've seen, pocket pairs just seem to pay off those kinda bets!
4. And Calling BVB is Too Tight - In online poker the randoms seemed to have improved on working out the ranges for knowing what to call blind vs blind. On top of that, the stacks are literally there in writing. But in live, especially in the later stages of the tournament, players tighten up and just don't realise how much the antes add to the pot. I've shoved a many a times, and have a fishy player just think for ages and fold showing his Ax. 
5. Old Skoolers Love Limping, Hate All Ins and Love to Show - And typically hate online poker as well. They wanna see flops and play based on "skill". However, we all know that shoving is an important part of survival, and so its an easy way of exploiting this fact. If you stay chatty and friendly with the old skoolers, they will love to show! Don't forget to compliment them on their showing and how well they played the hand!

To be honest its pretty weird because most of the time I will play live is because one of my friends want to play it instead. My live results have not been bad at all, I've definitely shipped quite a few (prob 20+?) from Casinos and Cardrooms in my lifetime. Maybe its good value after all for me?? =D

THE DOUBLE WIN + AN INTERESTING HAND

I never really expected to ship both tournaments. I was actually just hoping to get itm (in the money) which was 3rd place, so once I achieved that I was pretty happy. What is great about live though is the personal experience you go through when playing. Its like a journey. Which is why I think there are so many "purists" who like that idea and reject playing online, as online loses its personalability. 

Most of the hands that are played are pretty normal 50/50 flips pocket pair vs 2 overs kinda thing. Also a bunch of AA/KK/QQ big pots holding up. Its great for me because no one knows me or my skill level, and I can play on that image by being a chatty [pretty seemingly stupid] guy, but throughout the time I'm paying attention to everything and exploiting everyone as best as I can. 

An interesting hand came up yesterday at the final table. I'm bad with memory but it goes something like this.

Blinds 800/1600/200 ante or something like that.

8 Players remain.

Myself, UTG, and UTG+2 are big stacks.

UTG open limps.

UTG+2 calls.

Middle Position short stack calls as well.

CO guy calls.

SB folds (??????? lol)

I check with J9o.

Flop is J95ss

At this point it was pretty awesome for me, as not only had I checked in the dark (checked before flop came out) but I had also been actively chatting.

UTG open shoves. [YES]

UTG + 2 goes all in [ERM]

MP short stack goes all in also. [HMMM}

CO folds.

Now me lol. 

Obviously if I call here I'm pretty much gonna win the final table right there almost as I'd have 1/2 chips in play. However, since the big stacks had both gone all in, my 2 pair does not look very strong anymore. I'm putting the big stacks on 55, 99 (even though I have a 9), QTs or T8s, its possible that one of them has Jx or QQ KK AA if they decided to trap. So I fold face up (prob a mistake to show) and they reveal their cards.

UTG had KK

UTG +2 had KJ

MP also had J9

Overall I don't really mind my fold there, I'm pretty sure that it was the correct decision to make. I hadn't even invested that much into the pot, I had only lost my big blind to it so far. When 2 big stacks get it in like that they are usually going to be very strong because of the fact that their stack sizes add to the amount of risk that they're willing to take over losing it.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS

So I thought it would be fun to see what the math* was on calculating my chances of winning, if no skill was involved at all in poker. It helps to actually put in perspective how much skill there actually is! For example, if we played a 9 man table, with no skill everyone has 11% chance of winning, and therefore you will make the money 33% of the time if it is top 3.

Both weeks there was 26 runners (I'll include the rebuyers as a new person). With no skill, 100%/26 = 3.85% chance of winning. And with this being 2 tournaments in a row, it would be 3.85% x 3.85% (hopefully the math is correct) = 0.1% (0.148225 to be exact).

With no skill, I had achieved a 1 in 1000 chance of winning 2 MTTs in a row! :)

Now does anyone want to try and work out something else?

Not only did I win 2 MTTs in a row. but the final 3 were the same people as last week, and they also finished in the same order too! If anyone out there is willing to have a go and work out the odds of that happening using the "with no skill" probabilities I've love to see your workings and find the answer!!

*I am British born, but I am happy to adopt some American terms if I believe it to make sense. I like saying Math instead of Maths coz it sounds better and it is correct (sorry guys)

Happy New Two Thousand and Fourteen!

Happy New Year! I hope that you all have had some great New Years celebrations! Its always kinda nice to spend some time with family and friends together during the Christmas period.

In England, the best fireworks are the ones in London, by the Thames. Its pretty cool that they incorporate using the London Eye into the firework celebrations!

WHATS UP FOR 2014

POKER

Its really taken a while for my confidence to return poker wise. Its been such a journey. Firstly to realize how bad I am, and then to relearn everything and understand what I was doing wrong. But in the process I achieved Supernova status on Pokerstars, which is quite an achievement considering my results. So my basic plan is to maintain that status by getting the 100k VPPs as soon as possible, hopefully by the summer and then reevaluate whether I wanna go for 200k VPPs (that $2600 bonus looks tasty!) or expand into 180ms again. But for now getting that 100k is going to be my priority. I know quite a few poker players who left their VPP goals really last minute, and don't wanna be one of those guys... its too stressful!

Also with the casino opening so close to me, I really should try my hand at playing more live tournaments. Even though they are ridiculously slow, and fields are not that great, its still worth the experience. Also, there should be quite a few main events that I could satellite into, so its worth a try for sure.

Dec and Jan being the two busiest months for different reasons!
In December all the regs are trying to make their VPP goals, so the games were quite reg infested, but in saying that most regs were trying to get volume in which meant that they're quality of play probably wasn't as good as usual.

January I expect it to be a busy time because all the overly optimistic regs will probably go for Supernova Elite. So the mass grinding begins as they all try to get off to a good start. However, many will fail due to various reasons, whether it be keeping this motivation up, the variance hitting them, or just life events that are uncontrollable. Gaining Supernova Elite is very hard to do and last few years has averaged around 300 players making it. I'm sure that the estimated $200k in bonus money is worth it, but its no easy task, that's for sure!

How us "pro's" play online poker! Just joking haha

TRAVELLING

After going to one of my best friends' weddings and back to my homeland of Hong Kong, its reinforced my urge to travel more. However, this means that saving up for a rainy day is a lot harder, and is also going to be dependent on me getting better results, but with less pressure since I am Supernova.

3 places I really want to go to this year is gonna be New York, San Francisco, and Vancouver. I might combine the San Fran/Vancouver trip possibly since they're on the west side and it might be cheaper overall. Either way, it should be good, and a great motivational factor for me to work towards.

When travelling you meet so many people, enjoy yourself with friends, see so much stuff and generally have amazing memories and experiences. I read somewhere that in various studies humans are more happier in spending money on experiences over consumer goods.

I wanna see the Golden Gate bridge!

[PLAYING] STARCRAFT

I really would like to raise my level in playing Starcraft, but since its usually after my poker sessions, I'm kinda unwilling to spend a few more hours sitting in front of the computer after already being there for a good 5-6 hours. That's the biggest problem. I would like to get better of course, but Terran is a hard race because its so mechanical and micro heavy. Sometimes there's so much action its hard to keep track of everything and make sure that your spending your money.

I'm currently Gold, lets get that to Platinum and possibly Diamond. I plan to pretty much stream when I play. 2 years on, my love for this game still hasn't subsided.

Current State of the Game (From Terran's POV)
Its Deja Vu!! As the new year starts, Terran has now been nerfed to becoming the weakest race yet again. But this time, instead of Brood Lord - Infestor being the dominant composition, we see Protoss air openings being very strong and winning many tournaments. Now typical moaning and groaning about imbalance is usually all tongue and cheek, mostly as a joke at each other. But the main concern with Terran really is that our new units doesn't contribute as much (got nerfed) or basically doesn't exist anymore! Its sad to say that Terran of HoTS is basically almost the same Terran of WoL.

We can compare the new units latest nerf/buffs for all races to see what I mean;

Terran:
Widow Mines - Nerfed radius damage from 160 to 125. Splash damage reduced.
Hellbat - Nerfed 18 +12 vs light to 18.
Warhound - Removed completely from the game.

Protoss:
Mothership Core - Buffed photon overcharge range 13 damage 20 for 60 seconds.
Tempest - Kinetic Overload weapon damage vs massive increased from 30 to 50.
Oracle - Movement speed increased from 3.375 to 4, Acceleration increased from 2 to 3.

Zerg:
Swarm Host - Health increased from 120 to 160.
Viper - Health increased from 120 to 150.

So as you can see in the latest balance patches of the new units, Terran really has had the bad end of the stick. On top of this, the level of adjustments towards us has increased, so it feels like a double whammy when something like mines have been nerfed, and Zerg has improved their level of play towards adjusting to this unit.

[WATCHING] STARCRAFT

I really like what they've done to Starcraft in 2013, introducing the WCS as an overall league which went towards a final overall tournament at the end of the year at Blizzcon. They done really well to also work with other corporations to make sure that other tournaments were still around and got good viewership.

It is true that there has been way too much WCS content, with the 3 Seasons, with 3 Regions and 3 end of Season tournaments on top of that, and also the qualifiers. Dropping it down to 2 Seasons can be a good idea, we'll see how it evolves and how it effects the numbers, especially personal streamers.

The constant retouching of the game making certain units/abilities stronger or weaker keeps the game interesting. If something is made stronger, how does it effect the matchup? On top of that there are map changes which also effect the game and viable strategies. I like the idea that things are always constantly changing which refreshes the game and brings in new viewers.

There's always the constant debate about Koreans vs Foreigners in the scene. Note that the term "Foreigner" is basically meaning non-Korean. The Koreans are so dominant and lot of the player complain when they are competing in different regions. This year players have to play 200 games within their ladder region to participate in it, so at least they give something back in terms of experience to the ladder.

With Stephano gone, the ball is in Naniwa and Scarlett's court on who is the best foreigner. A big showmatch was done where they played it out and Naniwa won 4-2, just showing his experience in preparation matches, where he punished Scarlett's greed in her games. Who will be more successful in 2014 and will we have any other foreigners stepping up?


FAVE GAMES 2013

Sometime last year I did a post on my top 10 games (in no order coz its too hard to judge). There has been some awesome games this previous year as well! And one of the coolest things is that content is becoming more free! Tried to get embedding to include start times but dunno why its not working :(

1. Taeja vs Innovation crazy Bio vs Mech game 3. (54m55s)




2. Jaedong vs Stardust with interesting finish to game 3!(56m45s)




3. Scarlett vs Bomber 2 Rax to midgame madness!




4. Parting vs Life crazy hold vs speedling timing in the Group of Death.




5. Life vs DRG Game 7 decider Iron Squid Final - Holding off 10 pool speeding vs hatch first gas. (2m18s)




6. Taeja vs Rain's insane Ghost control in Game 2 (28m15s)




7. Bomber vs Goswer crazy game! Seeker missiles on own medivacs as a homing device, self nuking armies and insane base trades!




8. Innovation vs MVP...what a crazy comeback with Mech




9. Awesome ZvT Jaedong vs Maru Game 4 (42m39s)




10. Jaedong vs Deer Game 5 awesome burrow roach play at Blizzcon Finals (1hr00m25s)


GOMTV has released all its content in 2013 for free here.

Man I gotta make shorter posts! Anyways Happy New Year, hope everyone will have a great 2014!