Monday, 1 March 2021

Forget Feb...

 Its been a rough month not gonna lie. 

No doubt I ran insanely good in Jan and I was pretty scared of the inevitable run bad. I also didn't get as many chests at all as Diamond ones take ages to get enough points, so not much extra profit from that.

Red line indicates that my non showdown winnings are low, it did seem that players didn't fold as much to my bluffs 

Last week I had a long stretch of no chip ev as well, it happens.

Games: 2863
Hours played: 106
Total: -$1087

1sts: 35.6% 
2nds: 34%
3rds: 33.2%

Winning days: 9 of  27
Losing days: 18
Breakeven days: 0

Multipliers above 5x won: 
25x: 1/2
10x: 8/20

Rakeback (Diamond chest)
$50 in starcoins

Final total: -$1037
Chip EV: A terrible 38

To me, this seemed like it was mostly about the tale of two different 5x multiplier EVs;

February's 243 5x multipliers EV graph 

January's 191 5x multiplier EV graph

The 5x multipliers are pretty important in Spins, as they help you climb upwards in your sessions. Of course it is possible to do that without them, but with the 2x's being only a double buy in, it makes it very difficult because your winrate would need to be over 45%+ consistently. There's no doubt that there are things I need to improve on but with this high variance system you are at the mercy of how the cards fall, especially heads up.
Interesting how many more 5x's I got this month compared to last month, however I did get one less 25x so feels like that kinda balances it out. Just didn't work out due to the bad run tho.

I managed to ship 8 out of 20 10x's tho which is pretty good! Seems like I have a better winrate in those then the 5x's.

I was very close last month to take a shot at the $25s actually, but I wanted a bigger buffer since the jump is quite large from the previous stake. Would have been interesting to see what could have happened but in a way this has helped prepare myself mentally and bankroll-wise for what a long stretch of variance is like... and its not fun.

I'm sure there are aspects of my game needs improving and its likely a lot of regs have adjusted to some of my plays. Hopefully March will turn it around.

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