Saturday, 6 February 2016

Spin & Bet, King of Jan & Slowroll Justice!

BetStars - Spin and Bet

The SNG Spin and Go format is introduced into Sports Betting.

The format will allow for certain bets to be "spun" for 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 5x or 10x the odds given.

I'm not into betting, but it seems strange to me that anyone would want to take up a bet and not know what the odds are. The point of bets is to work out if the odds are worth it and allow for the risk to reward ratio. Take away this risk assessment, and it turns the bet itself into a roulette. Bets itself are not guaranteed, so why make the odds not guaranteed on top of that?

It seems to me that Amaya saw the success of Spin and Go's and just thought that this "winning formula" can be implemented anywhere. It doesn't seem like they understand why Spin and Go's are so successful (they're fast, gives recreationals more even playing field, prizepools can be ridiculous), and just sort of copied this idea, threw it in and crossed their fingers with the hope that something will happen.

With so many other betting sites offering better guaranteed odds, I just don't see this taking off. Sports betters are not necessarily poker players, and vice versa. You cannot have the strategy of the live casino where they get the poker players in, then whilst they're there and bored eventually get them on the other games. With online there are multiple options at the click of a mouse, and quite simply other betting sites offer better value for that market.

February's promotion also saw BetStars missions being implemented as incentives to bet. Putting these missions under VIP Poker missions further shows how Amaya is trying to treat poker, betting and casino games as the same thing.

This is just more steps in the wrong direction to the original ideas and mentality of the original Scheinberg brothers company. The diversification of Pokerstars may end up having a jack of all trades, but master of none type direction, meaning that because they offer so many different games, each one will lose out to another online site which specialises in each area.

It is a shame that PokerStars rivals are so bad at taking advantage of their terrible decision making. I bash this site so much these days but it hurts more as there is no real alternative in comparison. Someone needs to step up!

Pobeditilius King of January

Spin and Go's are notoriously variance heavy. The fact that it is such a fast format with 3 minute blinds, plus the prizepool is random, with mostly 2x's being the majority means that even the best players are unable to control their downswings. Not that other formats don't have variance but Spins are much more violent then a typical SNG.

However, I noticed that Pobeditilius had gone through the whole of January without a losing day! That is 25 days played out of 31, plus lets add in 3 winning days in a row before the new year, meaning that he went on a run of 28 days without losing!

Considering that he definitely ran better in terms of getting a lot of 25x's, it could be argued that he just ran good this month and was lucky. But if you consider his overall graph as being a diagonally vertical line, as well as other players too, it shows that there are some consistent winners grinding this format and that they are beatable.

Stars Odds of Hitting Non Top Tier Multipliers in %

2x = 71%
4x = 21%
6x = 7.5%
10x = 0.5%
25x = 0.1%

I'm sure if he had made a prop bet on not having a losing day in Spins for a whole month playing this amount of volume, he could have made even more money. But I doubt anyone will attempt this, since it depends so much on having a decent spread of multipliers.

Slow Roll Justice

Aussie Millions saw a douchebag get owned by angling and slow rolling another player with KK. Finally some slow roll justice! If you ever want to instantly get hated by the poker community, my advice is to do exactly what this guy did and slow roll on TV for all to see.

JCarver was a great commentator for these tournaments, its great to have a dude who is able to fill the downtime with interesting interactive topics, as well as finding a good not too in depth (for the casuals) analysis of each situations. Poker needs more guys like him to keep it interesting!

I hope everyone is doing well at the tables, please check out Tiltbook if your interested in a poker themed facebook, its a cool place to hang out and waste even more time on top of the normal facebook!